# Baseline results

:::{note}
**In brief** — This chapter presents indicative output from an OPEN-PROM NDC–LTS baseline run: CO₂ emissions, final
energy demand, fuel shares and electrification, and electricity generation, each shown for the world and for the EU.
:::

:::{important}
These are **illustrative results from one specific NDC–LTS baseline scenario, produced with one particular model
version**. They are shown to convey the *kind* of output OPEN-PROM produces, not as definitive projections. The exact
numbers will change across model versions and scenarios.
:::

For the baseline scenario an NDC–LTS run is presented.

An NDC–LTS scenario reflects a pathway that integrates a country's short-to-medium-term climate commitments, as
defined in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), with its long-term decarbonisation objectives outlined in its
Long-Term Strategy (LTS). Such a scenario typically incorporates the policy measures and emission-reduction targets
committed up to 2030, and then extends these trajectories in a consistent manner towards mid-century climate goals,
such as net-zero emissions. By linking these two policy horizons, the scenario provides a coherent representation of
how near-term actions influence long-term outcomes.

## Baseline emissions

The baseline emissions trajectory indicates a substantial reduction in CO₂ emissions across the EU
({numref}`fig-baseline-co2-eu`) and other economies ({numref}`fig-baseline-co2-world`), with global emissions falling
below zero. This pattern aligns with a scenario embedding NDC commitments.

:::{figure} ../images/fig_baseline_co2_world.png
:name: fig-baseline-co2-world
:width: 100%

NDC-LTS baseline: CO₂ emissions per sector (global).
:::

:::{figure} ../images/fig_baseline_co2_eu.png
:name: fig-baseline-co2-eu
:width: 100%

NDC-LTS baseline: CO₂ emissions per sector, EU.
:::

## Final energy demand

Final energy demand by sector is reported for the world ({numref}`fig-baseline-fe-world`) and for the EU
({numref}`fig-baseline-fe-eu`).

:::{figure} ../images/fig_baseline_fe_world.png
:name: fig-baseline-fe-world
:width: 100%

NDC-LTS baseline: final energy demand per sector (global).
:::

:::{figure} ../images/fig_baseline_fe_eu.png
:name: fig-baseline-fe-eu
:width: 100%

NDC-LTS baseline: final energy demand per sector, EU.
:::

## Fuel shares and electrification

The composition of final energy demand by fuel, and the associated electrification trend, are shown for the world
({numref}`fig-baseline-fuel-world`) and for the EU ({numref}`fig-baseline-fuel-eu`).

:::{figure} ../images/fig_baseline_fuel_world.png
:name: fig-baseline-fuel-world
:width: 100%

NDC-LTS baseline: final energy demand per fuel (global).
:::

:::{figure} ../images/fig_baseline_fuel_eu.png
:name: fig-baseline-fuel-eu
:width: 100%

NDC-LTS baseline: final energy demand per fuel, EU.
:::

## Electricity generation and power-sector transformation

Electricity generation by fuel illustrates the power-sector transformation, reported for the world
({numref}`fig-baseline-elec-world`) and for the EU ({numref}`fig-baseline-elec-eu`).

:::{figure} ../images/fig_baseline_elec_world.png
:name: fig-baseline-elec-world
:width: 100%

NDC-LTS baseline: electricity generation per fuel (global).
:::

:::{figure} ../images/fig_baseline_elec_eu.png
:name: fig-baseline-elec-eu
:width: 100%

NDC-LTS baseline: electricity generation per fuel, EU.
:::